Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
