Just eight weeks in the past when the young forward stood on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager berated him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team went six without a win, the question was if his displays were a sign or a cause of Villa's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, though, the sideline response was entirely much more joyous. After the England international swept in his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The team continued to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning any of their first six games, now sit only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Challengers?
This is a particularly tough question to answer. The historical record, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been completely commanding in many games, while the wins have stacked up.
According to the data, on just two occasions have Villa posted an expected goals figure notably superior than their opponents. For a team that have put together 10 in a row, Villa appear weirdly vulnerable – yet right now the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach looks like to exchange chances with rivals and then rely on their star man to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more versus Manchester United.
His opener came from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the upright from a wide position. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. Against United, Manchester United managed more shots and more shots on target. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge Villa have to face in the near future. The forward, surely, cannot maintain blasting the ball past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Potential for Growth
Could it be another reality where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures could still return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger could transform into the player he showed in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Maybe within that lies the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely earlier this season, no one envisioned the young forward now would be leading a title charge while looking like an essential Three Lions star.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. As the match-winner stood in front of the home supporters after the match conducting the cheers, it was clear to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.
